Scientists' Contributions  
   

European FUMAPEX project: "Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure"

Alexander A. Baklanov
(Project leader, Danish Meteorological Institute,
DMI, Lyngbyvej 100, Copenhagen, DK-2100, Denmark, e-mail: alb@dmi.dk,
project web-site: http://fumapex.dmi.dk)

FUMAPEX PARTNERS:

P1. Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) - coordinator, Contacts: Dr Alexander Baklanov, Alix Rasmussen
P2. German Weather Service (DWD), PO Box 100465, D-63004 Offenbach, Germany, Contact: Barbara Fay
P3. Hamburg University (MIHU), Bundesstr. 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany, Contact: Prof. Michael Schatzmann
P4. Centro De Estudios Ambientales Del Mediterrano (CEAM), Parque Tecnológico, C/Charles R.Darwin, 14, E-46980 (Paterna) Valencia, Spain, Contact: Dr Millàn M. Millàn
P5. Ecole Centrale de Nantes (ECN), B.P. 92101, F-44321 Nantes Cedex 3, France, Contact: Dr. Patrice Mestayer
P6. Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Sahaajankatu 20E, FIN-00810 Helsinki, Finland, Contact: Dr Jaakko Kukkonen
P7. ARIANET Consulting (ARIANET), via Gilino 9, I-20128 Milano, Italy, Contact: Dr Sandro Finardi
P8. Environmental Protection Agency of Emilia-Romagna Region (ARPA), Vviale Silvani 6, I-40122 Bologna, Italy, Contact: Dr Marco Deserti
P9. Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI, met.no), P.O.Box 43, Blindern, N0313 Oslo, Norway, Contacts: Dr Norvald Bjergene
P10. Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), P.O.Box 100, N-2027 Kjeller, Norway, Contact: Dr Leiv Haavard Slordal
P11. University of Hertfordshire (UH), College Lane, Hatfield, AL10 9AB, UK, Contact: Prof. Ranjeet Sokhi
P12. INSA CNRS-Universite-INSA de Rouen (CORIA), Av. de l'Université-BP 8, F-76801 Saint Etienne du Rouvray cedex, France, Contact: Prof. Alexis Coppalle
P13. Finnish National Public Health Institute (KTL), P.O.Box 95, FIN-70701 Kuopio, Finland, Contact: Prof. Matti Jantunen
P14. Environmental Protection Agency of Piedmont (ARPAP), Via della Rocca 49, I-10123 Torino, Italy, Contact: Dr Francesco Lollobrigida
P15. Institute for Environment & Sustainability - Joint Research Center (JRC IES), Ispra (VA), I21020, Italy, Contact: Dr Andreas N. Skouloudis
P16. Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), EPFL DGR-LPA, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland, Contacts: Drs Alain Clappier & Mathias Rotach

FUMAPEX subcontracts:

European Commission Scientific Officer: Dr Viorel Vulturescu, DG Research

I. INTRODUCTION

The quality of the urban air pollution forecast and the Urban Air Quality Information and Forecasting Systems (UAQIFS) critically depends on: (i) the mapping of emissions, (ii) the urban air pollution (UAP) models, and (iii) the meteorological fields in urban areas. The main problem in forecasting UAP is the prediction of episodes with high pollutant concentration in urban areas where most of the well-known methods and models, based on in-situ meteorological measurements, fail to realistically produce the meteorological input fields for the UAP models.

UAP models in operational UAQIFSs, as a rule, use simple in-situ meteorological measurements which are fed into meteorological pre-processors (Figure 1). Lacking an adequate description of physical phenomena and the complex data assimilation and parameterisations of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, these pre-processors do not achieve the potential of NWP models in providing all the meteorological fields needed by modern UAP models to improve the urban air quality forecasts. However, during the last decade substantial progress in NWP modelling and in the description of urban atmospheric processes was achieved. Modern nested NWP models are utilising land-use databases down to hundred meters resolution or finer, and are approaching the necessary horizontal and vertical resolution to provide weather forecasts for the urban scale. In combination with the recent scientific developments in the field of urban sublayer atmospheric physics and the enhanced availability of high-resolution urban surface characteristics, the capability of the NWP models to provide high quality urban meteorological data will therefore increase.

Despite the increased resolution of existing operational NWP models, urban and non-urban areas mostly contain similar sub-surface, surface, and boundary layer formulation. These do not account for specifically urban dynamics and energetics and their impact on the numerical simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer and its various characteristics (e.g. internal boundary layers, urban heat island, precipitation patterns). Additionally, NWP models are not primarily developed for air pollution modelling and their results need to be designed as input to urban and mesoscale air quality models.

Therefore, due to the above mentioned reasons, the situation in UAQIFS is changing nowadays and requires a revision of the conventional conception of urban air pollution forecasting.

II. PROJECT OBJECTIVES AND IMPLEMENTATION

Following the above mentioned research needs, a new European Union research project “Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure” (FUMAPEX) was initiated in the bounds of the Fifth Framework Programme (FP5), Sub-programme: Environment and Sustainable Development, Key Action 4: City of Tomorrow and Cultural Heritage. FUMAPEX is a member of the CLEAR cluster of European Urban Air Quality Research (http://www.nilu.no/clear).

The main objectives of FUMAPEX (Nov. 2002 – Nov. 2005) are to improve meteorological forecasts for urban areas, to connect numerical weather prediction models to urban air pollution and population exposure (PE) models, to build improved Urban Air Quality Information and Forecasting Systems, and to demonstrate their application in cities subject to various European climates. The FUMAPEX scheme of the improvements of meteorological forecasts in urban areas, interfaces and integration with UAP and PE models for the UAQIFS is presented in Figure 2.

The improvement of urban meteorological forecasts will also provide information to city management regarding additional hazardous or stressing urban climate (e.g. urban runoff and flooding, icing and snow accumulation, high urban winds or gusts, heat or cold stress in growing cities and/or a warming climate). Moreover, the availability of reliable urban scale weather forecasts could be of relevant support for the emergency management of fires, accidental toxic emissions, potential terrorist actions etc.

In order to achieve the innovative project goal of establishing and implementing an improved new UAQIFS to assist sustainable urban development, the following steps will be achieved:

  1. improve predictions of the meteorological fields needed by UAP models by refining resolution and developing specific parameterisations of the urban effects in NWP models,
  2. develop suitable interface/meteorological pre-processors from NWP to UAP models,
  3. validate the improvements in NWP models and meteorological pre-processors by evaluating their effects on the UAP models against urban measurement data,
  4. apply the improved meteorological data to UAQIFS, emergency preparedness and population exposure models and compare and analyse the results, and
  5. successfully link meteorologists/NWP modellers with urban air pollution scientists and the ’end-users’ of UAQIFS.

The necessary steps are evolved in ten separate, but inter-linked Work Packages (see below) realised by 16 participants and 6 subcontractors (see above). They represent leading NWP centres, research organisations, and organisations responsible for urban air quality, population exposure forecast and control, and local/city authorities from ten European countries.

The Work Packages (WP) structure is the following:
WP 1: Analysis and evaluation of air pollution episodes in European cities (lead by J. Kukkonen, FMI)
WP 2: Assessment of different existing approaches to forecast UAP episodes (lead by R.S. Sokhi, UH)
WP 3: Testing the quality of different operational meteorological forecasting systems for urban areas (lead by B. Fay, DWD)
WP 4: Improvement of parameterisation of urban atmospheric processes and urban physiographic data classification (lead by A. Baklanov, DMI)
WP 5: Development of interface between urban-scale NWP and UAP models (lead by S. Finardi, Arianet)
WP 6: Evaluation of the suggested system (UAQIFS) to uncertainties of input data for UAP episodes (lead by N. Bjergene, DNMI)
WP 7: Development and evaluation of population exposure models in combination with UAQIFS’s (lead by M. Jantunen, KTL)
WP 8: Implementation and demonstration of improved Urban Air Quality Information and Forecasting Systems (lead by L.H. Slørdal, NILU)
WP 9: Providing and dissemination of relevant information (lead by A. Skouloudis, JRC)
WP10: Project management and quality assurance (lead by A. Rasmussen, DMI)


Figure 1. Current regulatory (dash line) and suggested (solid line) ways for systems of forecasting of urban meteorology for UAQUIFS:s.


Figure 2. FUMAPEX scheme of the improvements of meteorological forecasts (NWP) in urban areas, interfaces and integration with urban air pollution (UAP) and population exposure (PE) models for the Urban Air Quality Information Forecasting and Information Systems (UAQIFS).
Project Implementation

The project will proceed through the steps given below, each of which can be considered as a separate objective providing valuable results:

CLASSIFICATION OF AIR POLLUTION EPISODES FOCUSING ON RELEVANT METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES.

VERIFICATION OF THE IMPROVED NWP, UAP, AND PE MODELS APPLICATION OF UAQIFS AND EMERGENCY SYSTEMS

The six target city candidates for the improved systems implementations and corresponding end-users are the following:

  1. – Oslo (Norway) => Municipality of Oslo, Norwegian Traffic Authorities;
  2. – Turin (Italy) => Environmental Protection Agency of Piedmont;
  3. – Helsinki (Finland) => Helsinki Metropolitan Area Council;
  4. – Castellon/Valencia (Spain) => Centro De Estudios Ambientales Del Mediterrano;
  5. – Bologna (Italy) => Environmental Protection Agency of Emilia Romagna Region;
  6. – Copenhagen (Denmark) => Danish Emergency Management Agency.

III. CURRENT PROJECT STATUS AND ACHIEVEMENTS

The current achievements after the first project year by the FUMAPEX work packages are described below.

WP 1 Analysis and evaluation of air pollution episodes in European cities

The objectives of Work Package 1 in FUMAPEX are:

In the FUMAPEX project the key pollutants are PM10, PM2.5, O3 and NO2, as these cause the worst air quality problems in European cities. These pollutants are regulated by both the EU limit values and the national guidelines.

The ability to reliably forecast air pollution episodes will be invaluable to minimise the health impact on the citizen, particularly children and the elderly. If episodes can be forecasted reliably, local authorities can implement strategies and practical measures to reduce the impact on public health and the environment. Time warnings make it possible to target local air quality management actions specifically to reduce population exposures and thus to minimise adverse health effects cost effectively. However, at present it can be noted that during episodes, when the pollutant concentrations are highest, the performance of dispersion models is commonly worst.

A total of 21 episodes from seven cities or metropolitan areas in six countries have been selected for analysis and evaluation. The cities include Castellón (Spain), Helsinki (Finland), Turin (Italy), Bologna (Italy), Oslo (Norway), London (UK) and Paris (France). For these cities extensive datasets of air quality and meteorological variables, have been compiled and submitted by the FUMAPEX partners.

The cities addressed represent Northern, Western (Atlantic and continental) and Mediterranean regions of Europe. However, the Eastern Central and Eastern European regions have not been included in this review at the current stage. Basic classification of various types and characteristic features of urban air pollution episodes in European cities has been proposed (Valkama and Kukkonen, 2003).

The information gathered in FUMAPEX regarding peak pollution episodes has already been utilized for writing several conference papers (Sokhi et al., 2003, Rantamäki et al., 2003 and Pohjola et al., 2003), and refereed journal articles (Kukkonen et al., 2003, Rantamäki et al., 2003 and Pohjola et al., 2003). The work will continue with further evaluation and analysis of episodes based on data published, existing overviews and classifications and data from other projects.

WP 2 Assessment of different existing approaches to forecast UAP episodes

The activities within WP2 were devoted to the identification, comparison and analysis of the meteorological input parameters and pre-processors employed by existing UAP models, and directed to provide the initial basis regarding the currently employed meteorological approaches for characterising the urban atmospheric boundary layer in UAP models. The analysis and conclusions made in the deliverables of WP2 are to be used for subsequent work packages especially in relation to areas that require improvement.

In the first year of FUMAPEX within WP2 a Collation and examination of selected models used for urban air pollution assessment in diagnostic and forecasting mode was made (Sokhi et al., 2003; Batchvarova et al., 2003). A key criterion of selecting the models was the relevance and need for end users. The models were classified according to the:

UAP model types used within the FUMAPEX project include Lagrangian, Eulerian, Hybrid Lagrangian/Eulerian, Gaussian, Trajectory, Box, and statistical approaches (Table 1).

Table 1. List of FUMAPEX Air Quality Models, Applications and met pre-processors used.
PartnerAir Quality Models - ApplicationsMet Pre-processors
P1 (DMI with DEMA)The Danish Emergency Response Model of the Atmosphere (DERMA)- Emergency response
The Accident Reporting and Guidance Operation System (ARGOS) - Emergency response
HIRLAM Tracer Eulerian Model - Air Pollution Research		LSMC pre-processor (a part of the ARGOS system)RODOS met-pre-processorMixing Height Calculation Library
P2 (DWD)Trajectory model TM - Emergency response, episodes
Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model LPDM - Emergency response, air pollution research		Mixing Height Module MH
P4 (CEAM)HYPACT (Hybrid Particle and Concentration Transport Model) - Air Pollution Research
Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) Version 3.1 - Episodes simulation		 
P5 (ECN) 1-D non-stationary pre-processor MPP
P6 (FMI)CAR-FMI and OSPM - Air Quality (traffic)UDM-FMI - Urban Air QualityMATCH (Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry Model) - Air pollution researchMPP-FMI
P7 (ARIANET)
P14 (ARPAP)		FARM (Flexible Air quality Regional Model) - Episodes simulation SURFPRO (SURrface-atmosphere interFace PROcessor)
P8 (ARPA-SMR)OLMO (Ozone Linear MOdel) - Air Quality Forecast
PIOPPO (Pm10 Pollution Polynomial model) - Air Quality Forecast
CALGRID - Regional Scale Episodes simulations
ADMS(Urban) - Long Term Urban Air Quality Assessment		CALMET-SMR
P9 (met.no) &
P10 (NILU)		EPISODE - Urban Air Quality, Research, forecast, AQ assessmentMETPRO
P11 (UH)PEARL - Urban Air Quality
CMAQ - Episodes simulation		GAMMA-MET

After the air pollution episodes for common consideration in FUMAPEX were identified within WP1, different met-pre-processors run with UAQ models were used within WP2 to examine their performance for pollutants such as CO, NOx and PM10.

WP 3 Testing the quality of different operational meteorological forecasting systems for urban areas

The focus of WP3 is on the description of existing forecasting systems and the evaluation of their capability to forecast key meteorological parameters in urban areas.

Partners in FUMAPEX use different operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) or research mesoscale models for providing the meteorological input data for the UAP models in the UAQIFSs. Therefore, the tasks comprise

These results provide the basis for explaining and quantifying the model improvements planned in subsequent WPs and also supply useful information to modellers and regulatory authorities.

The Model Overview (Fay 2003) is the first overview and synopsis of the operational mesoscale NWP models plus established research mesoscale models used in 4 European national weather services, one regional weather service, and in many European and international research centers/universities as operational NWP models and as input to air pollution modelling. It contains detailed information on all model aspects including information on the different interfaces or pre-processors converting the NWP output data into input data for urban air pollution models. For an effective comparison of model characteristics, synopsis tables are provided for all models concerning model scales, initialisation, nesting capabilities, parameterisations and especially turbulence treatment which is a basic requisite for the work of improving and exchanging parameterisations in WP4 and for some of the interfaces/pre-processors used in WP5.

The Design of model comparison study is a FUMAPEX reference document on model comparison and evaluation (Fay 2003a). It deals in detail with the choice of cities and episodes and the various theoretical and applied aspects of evaluation methodology for episode as well as for longer-term evaluation. The choice of cities, the proposed evaluation strategy for WP3, and the harmonised use of the GRADS visualisation software and of the MMAS evaluation tool (FMI) had been discussed and agreed upon in plenary sessions at the Helsinki meeting. Information had been collected on standard NWP evaluation and verification in the European CityDelta, ENSEMBLE and AUTOOIL-II projects. Although prepared with focus on the meteorological simulations in WP3, the document is relevant for consecutive WPs as well (WPs 4-6)

Self-nesting version of the LM and high-resolution LM simulations: DWD finalised and successfully tested the LM2LM that provides initial and boundary values of the local model (Lokalmodell LM) with coarser resolution needed to calculate the LM with higher resolution. Using the LM2LM, 3 level nested LM forecasts (7, 2.8,1.1km) are already performed in WP3 by P8 (ARPA-SMR) and P2 (DWD). The model was also provided to COSMO and successfully used at a German research institute.

Workshop on Helsinki episode simulations, Valencia 10 Dec 2003: With focus on winter and spring episodes in Helsinki, first simulations were presented for the operational NWP/mesoscale models HIRLAM, LM, MM5 and RAMS of the partners (DWD, DMI, CEAM, FMI, ARPA, DNMI, and UH). Results show improvements with increasing model resolution (down to 1.1km) but the need for adapted external parameters and urbanised parameterisations was apparent. Harmonised model evaluation and comparison was discussed in detail and will be performed for all target cities in 2004.

WP 4 Improvement of parameterisation of urban atmospheric processes and urban physiographic data classification

In a general sense, the following urban features can influence the atmospheric flow, microclimate, turbulence regime and, correspondently, the transport, dispersion, and deposition of atmospheric pollutants within the urban areas:

Accordingly, considering the mentioned above features, the following aspects of the urban effects in the improved urban-scale NWP models should be realised:

Realisation of the above mentioned features and aspects in NWP models is ambitious and time-consuming. Therefore, at first, in the bounds of the FUMAPEX project we consider three main steps or levels of complexity of the NWP urbanisation (Baklanov, 2003):

  1. Simple corrections of the surface roughness for urban areas, e.g., following Mestayer et al. (2003), and heat fluxes (adding the albedo changes and additional urban heat flux, e.g. via heat production in the city) within the existing non-urban physical parameterisations of the surface layer in the model with higher resolution and improved land-use classification. It is realised in the DMI-HIRLAM model.
  2. Improvement and realisation of a new flux aggregation technique, suggested by the Risø National Laboratory in cooperation with DMI (Hasager et al., 2003) for urban areas. Recently, this module was realised in the DMI-HIRLAM model for non-urban areas. The approach can be extended for urban canopies as well. However, experimental data are needed to verify parameterisations for urban areas.
  3. Implementation of special physical parameterisations for the urban sub-layer into the NWP models. In this project we plan to incorporate in both HIRLAM and LM models a new urban module, developed in FUMAPEX and based on the following two different urban submodels:
    • Urban surface exchange parameterisation, developed by the Swiss team, Partner 16 (the model description is given by Martilli et al., 2002);
    • SM2-U urban area soil submodel, developed by the French team, Partner 5 (the model description is given by Dupont et al., 2002).

List of FUMAPEX NWP and meso-meteorological models for 'urbanisation' and their user/developer teams is the following: 1. DMI-HIRLAM (DMI); 2. Lokalmodell (LM) (DWD); 3. MM5 (DNMI (met.no, UH); 4. RAMS (CEAM, Arianet); 5. Topographic Vorticity-Mode Mesoscale (TVM) Model (UCL); 6. Finite Volume Model (FVM) (EPFL); 7. SUBMESO model (ECN). At the current stage of WP4 the following achievements are reached (Baklanov et al., 2003):

WP 5 Development of interface between urban-scale NWP and UAP models

The activities within WP5 are focused on the development and implementation of interfaces between NWP and UAP models. The possibility to obtain reliable air quality forecast in urban areas depends, among the other things, on the capability to properly exploit meteorological and air quality models technical features. To reach this objective the communication between models has to be physically consistent and finalised to practical applications. WP5 has also the key role to enable UAP models to properly exploit the scientific innovation produced in WP4, i.e. the enhanced description of urban boundary layer introduced in NWP models. The work will therefore result in the improvement of UAQIFS capabilities to describe the meteorological parameters more relevant to drive air pollutant dispersion in urban areas.

During the 1st year the main activity of WP5 has been the definition of the tasks to be covered by interface modules: what physical variables have to be processed or estimated, which computational methods are normally used and what kind of improvements are desired to better exploit the new features of parameterisations and "urbanised" meteorological models that are under development in FUMAPEX project. Milestone M5.1 "Definition of NWP models output products, UAP models input needs and gaps to be filled" has been met successfully by WP5 partners (Finardi, 2003).

The analysis of NWP models typical output parameters and their comparison with the UAP models input needs allowed identifying the main computations that have to be performed by the interface modules and what improvements of the existing software are desirable and can be achieved by FUMAPEX activities.

UAP model have been grouped in four classes for which the interface modules have to perform similar processing of meteorological data.

The first class includes statistical models, that don’t need from the interface system any particular calculation. They simply need to be given single valued meteorological data extracted from the coupled meteorological model.

A more numerous class of "simple" models includes all the approaches based on a steady state solution of dispersion equation. The models included in this class normally require meteorological data in a single point or possibly a vertical profile. Moreover they normally require evaluation of turbulence scaling parameters.

A first class of 3D models includes all the models based on Lagrangian description of dispersion phenomena. These models usually need: 3D fields of average quantities like wind, temperature, humidity and possibly turbulent kinetic energy; 2D surface fields like precipitation, sensible heat flux, friction velocity and Monin-Obukhov length; 3D turbulence fields, that are usually described by wind variances and Lagrangian time scales. The turbulence describing variables have to be evaluated from mean variables, TKE or KH, KZ, and scaling parameters.

The last 3D models class includes Eulerian models. The Eulerian dispersion coefficients (KH, KZ) produced by NWP models could be directly used by these air quality models. Nevertheless the direct use of dispersion coefficient calculated by NWP models is not always possible or advisable, therefore the interfaces for Eulerian models often implement capabilities to compute turbulence parameters from mean variables and scaling parameters. This last possibility can also allow to supplement the meteorological data provided by the NWP model with high resolution physiographic data or even observations.

The possible and desirable improvements for each model interface class have been preliminarily identified. Progresses in the description of urban meteorology and turbulence can be obtained from both the urbanisation of meteorological models and from the improvement of the built-in turbulence models implemented by the interface modules. WP 6 Evaluation of the suggested system (UAQIFS) to uncertainties of input data for UAP episodes Objective of the WP 6 activities is evaluation of the sensitivity of the forecasted UAP concentrations to various NWP-model designs with respect to: horizontal and vertical resolutions, variable length of forecast period, improved parameterization and assimilation of meteorological observation in the urban region into NWP-model. WP 6 is planned to work on the results from WP 3, WP 4 and WP 5 as well as observational data from WP 1. The work is therefore still in a state of the starting phase. The sensitivity analysis is planned to be performed for 4 target cities Oslo, Helsinki, Turin, (Bologna or Castallon/Valencia still to be decided), and for different seasonal periods – winter, spring summer autumn. The work in WP 6 is closely linked to the work in WP 8 and the results will be disseminated to end-users.

WP 7 Development and evaluation of population exposure models in combination with UAQIFS’s

The urban air pollution models, developed in the work packages WP4, WP5 and WP6, are used in WP7 to provide inputs to the population exposure models to quantify exposures caused by the ambient air pollution. These models link the spatial and temporal variations of the urban air quality forecasted by urban air pollution models to population time-activity.

Two complementary modelling approaches are used: (i) A deterministic modelling approach, based on the EXPAND-model (Kousa, et al., 2002), will be utilized and developed further in this work package. This deterministic approach allows for estimation of the spatial distribution of population exposures and presentation of these results on maps. (ii) A probabilistic microenvironment concentration and population time-activity modelling approach, based on the modelling framework described by Kruize et al. (2003) is used to estimate the probability distributions of 24-hour exposures in the target populations. These probability distributions can be used to estimate population health risks based on published exposure-response relationships (e.g. WHO, 2000).

In the development stage the microenvironment concentration and exposure models were compared to measurements from the EXPOLIS study, Helsinki, (Jantunen et al., 1998) for model validation (corresponding personal exposure measurement data is available also from Athens, Basle, Grenoble, Milan, Oxford and Prague).

The evaluation was conducted in five layers: (i) first the overall performance of the microenvironment modelling approach was evaluated by comparing the distributions of simulated exposures to observed ones. Then, (ii) the model components were evaluated by comparing separately modelled and observed concentrations in main microenvironments (workplaces and residences) and (iii) fractions of times spent in these. In the next phase the model was enhanced with calculation of indoor microenvironment concentrations using probabilistic infiltration of ambient pollution and additional concentrations caused by indoor sources. This concentration model was first (iv) evaluated against observed concentrations in EXPOLIS-Helsinki residences and then (v) implemented as part of the exposure model, which was evaluated against observed personal exposures by comparing exposure distributions.

Results for layer (i)-(iii) have been published in Hänninen et al. (2003), layer (iv) in Hänninen and Jantunen (2002) and part (v) in Hänninen and Jantunen (2003).

WP 8 Implementation and demonstration of improved Urban Air Quality Information and Forecasting Systems

The WP8 focus during the 1st project year have been on the specification of the UAQIFSs to be applied in the various target cities. The deliverable D8.1 "Guidelines of output from UAQIFSs as specified by end-users" and milestone M8.4 "Application of existing UAQIFSs in the target cities for the selected episodes", are now proceeding (Slørdal, 2003). The status of this milestone work is described for the various target cities below.

Oslo: All of the 5 selected episodes for the city of Oslo (spanning the time period from March 2000 to January 2003) have been simulated with the presently applied UAQIFS as part of the operational AQ forecasting procedure for the city of Oslo. However, since there has been model updates continuously during this period, the selected episodes are now being recalculated with the latest operational UAQIFS version. At the moment one of the episodes is finished and we expect to be finished with the rest of the recalculations within a period of 3 to 4 months.

Helsinki: The episodes for years 1995 & 1998 have been modeled by the old FMI- UAQIFS system – the calculations for year 2002 episode are expected to be finished in 2 months with an updated version of the FMI-UAQIFS system including also the calculation of the PM2.5 concentrations, which were missing in the earlier calculations.

Castellon: A daily procedure to forecast the levels of surface ozone for the Comunidad Valenciana (Castellon/Valencia/Alicante) over a regional scale has been operational since the year 2000 (PREVIOZONO Program). Every year, this program has been carried out between the months of April and September, in concurrence with the highest concentrations of this pollutant within the region. Until now, the ozone forecast relies on the staff expertise along with a statistical analysis based on the Automatic Air Quality Network of the CV dataset. However, the forecast procedure lacks an objective method to estimate the pollutant concentrations. This objective methodology, consisting of a numerical module encompassing a meteorological and a photochemical model, would generate ozone concentration fields for the region. This model output would be in turn interpreted by the expert staff as an intermediate step for the formulation of the daily forecast. Within the context of the FUMAPEX project, such objective module will be developed and applied to one of the scenarios that were already scrutinized for the urban/industrial area of Castellon and the rural area affected by its emissions.

Bologna: Ozone forecasting statistical model OLMO is operational at ARPA Emilia Romagna since June 2002, PM10 model PIOPPO since October 2002. The selected episodes for Bologna occurred during January 2002 (for PM10) and during June 2002 (for O3); at the moment forecasts with OLMO for the ozone episode were performed, not yet for the PM10 episode. Scenario analysis with CALGRID during ozone episode was performed, with comparison with observations (in Bologna and in other cities in the region) and some emission reduction hypothesis. We plane to simulate the PM10 episode by PIOPPO in the next 6 months. Then we will re – simulate all the episodes using as input data the new improved meteorology provided by the various WPs of FUMAPEX.

Turin: The first of the 2 episode included in the WP1 database has been simulated. The episode (19-21/07/1999) has been used to build the new UAQUIFS for the city of Turin. The calculations are now being repeated to optimize the meteorological and dispersion simulations configurations. Comparisons with observation are planned for the next future.

Copenhagen: For the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area and the Øresund region (including the cities of Copenhagen, Denmark, and Malmø, Sweden) the system is tested for emergency aspects (hypothetical accident or terror action) with a focus on radioactive materials first of all. Improved urban high-resolution (1.4 km) DMI-HIRLAM NWP model forecasting for the Copenhagen area is available to the Danish ARGOS emergency preparedness decision-support system. In ARGOS the data is used for simulation of atmospheric releases of toxic or radioactive matters (arising from e.g. an accident or a terrorist action). Two episodes for hypothetical scenarios with releases of radioactivity, e.g., from the Barsebäck nuclear power plant, which is located only 20 kilometres from the Copenhagen city centre, or a dirty bomb terror action in vicinities of the Copenhagen city were simulated in the forecast mode. Assessments are made of the implications for the emergency management and of the consequences for the citizens of Copenhagen and suburbs.

IV. FUMAPEX REFERENCES

Published papers:
Baklanov, A., A. Rasmussen, B. Fay, E. Berge and S. Finardi (2002) Potential and Shortcomings of Numerical Weather Prediction Models in Providing Meteorological Data for Urban Air Pollution Forecasting. Water, Air and Soil Poll., Focus, 2(5-6), 43-60.
Hasager, C.B. Nielsen, N.W., Boegh, E., Jensen, N.O., Christensen, J.H, Dellwik, E. and Soegaard, H. (2003) Effective roughnesses calculated from satellite-derived land cover maps and hedge information and used in a weather forecasting model. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 109: 227-254.
Hänninen, O., Kruize, H., Lebret, E., Jantunen, M. (2003) EXPOLIS simulation model, PM2.5 application and comparison with measurements in Helsinki. Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology 13(1), 74-85. Hänninen, O.O. and Jantunen, M.J. (2002) Simulation of PM2.5 home indoor concentrations in Helsinki. Epidemiology 13(4), 881.
Kitwiroon, N., R. S. Sokhi, L. Luhana and R. M. Teeuw (2002) Improvements in air quality modeling by using surface boundary layer parameters derived from satellite land cover data. Water, Air and Soil Pollution, Focus, 2, 29-41.
Kukkonen, J., Partanen, L., Karppinen, A., Ruuskanen, J., Junninen, H., Kolehmainen, M., Niska, H., Dorling, S., Chatterton, T., Foxall, R. and Cawley, G. (2003) Extensive evaluation of neural network models for the prediction of NO2 and PM10 concentrations, compared with a deterministic modelling system and measurements in central Helsinki. Atmospheric Environment 37(32), pp. 4539-4550.
Martilli, A., A. Clappier, and, M. W. Rotach (2002) An urban surfaces exchange parameterisation for mesoscale models. Boundary Layer Meteorol., 104, 261-304.
Mestayer, P., R. Almbauer, O. Tchepel (2003) Urban Field Campaigns, Air quality in cities, N. Moussiopoulos, editor. Springer Verlag Berlin Heidelberg (ISBN3-540-00842-x), 2003, pp.51-89
Zilitinkevich, S. and A. Baklanov, (2002) Calculation of the height of stable boundary layers in practical applications. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 105(3): 389-409.

Proceedings:
Calori G., De Maria R., Clemente M., Lollobrigida F., Finardi S. and Tinarelli G. (2003) Air quality integrated assessment in Turin urban area using atmospheric transport and dispersion models. Proc. of the 4th Int. Conf. On Urban Air Quality, pp.214-217.
Dupont, S., I. Calmet and P. Mestayer (2002) Urban canopy modelling influence on urban boundary layer simulation. 4th AMS Symposium on Urban Climatology, 20-24 May 2002, Norfolk, VA, Proceedings AMS, pp. 151-152.
Hänninen, O. O., Aarnio, P., Karppinen, A., Kukkonen, J., Elolähde, T., and Jantunen M. (2003) Dispersion Model based Probabilistic Simulation of Population PM2.5 Exposures in Helsinki. 13th Annual Conference of the International Society for Exposure Analysis, Stresa, Italy.
Hänninen, O.O., Tuomisto, J.T., Yli-Tuomi, T., and Jantunen, M (2003) Reduction potential of urban PM2.5 mortality risk using modern ventilation systems in buildings. The annual meeting of Society for Risk Analysis, Baltimore, December 7.-10., 2003.
Long, N., G. Pigeon, P. Mestayer, P. Durand, C. Kergomard (2003) Correlation between temperature and classification of urban fabric on Marseille during ESCOMPTE. 5th International Conference on Urban Climate, 1-5 Septembre 2003, Lodz, Poland, Proc. O.5.2
Long, N., P. Mestayer, C. Kergomard (2003) Urban database analysis for mapping morphology and aerodynamic parameters, the case of St Jerome sub-urban area, in Marseille during ESCOMPTE 5th International Conference on Urban Climate, 1-5 Septembre 2003, Lodz, Poland, Proc. O.31.1
Long, N., S. Kermadi, C. Kergomard, P. Mestayer, A. Träbouet (2003) Urban cover modes and thermodynamic parameters from urban database and satellite data: a comparison for Marseille during ESCOMPTE 5th International Conference on Urban Climate, 1-5 Septembre 2003, Lodz, Pologne.
Mestayer, P., P. Durand, P. Augustin, P. Bastin, J.-M. Bonnefond, B. Bénech, B. Campistron, A. Coppalle, H. Delbarre, B. Dousset, P. Drobinski, A. Druilhet, E. Fréjafon, S. Grimmond, D. Groleau, M. Irvine, C. Kergomard, S. Kermadi, J.-P. Lagouarde, A. Lemonsu, F. Lohou, N. Long, V. Masson, C. Moppert, J. Noilhan, B. Offerle, T. Oke, G. Pigeon, V. Puygrenier, J.-M. Rosant, F. Saïd, J. Salmond, M. Talbaut, J. Voogt (2003) UBL/CLU-Escompte , the Urban Boundary Layer Field experiment over Marseille and the data base 4th International Conference on Urban Air Quality, 25-28 March 2003, Carolinum University, Prague, Czech Republic, Proceedings, 4 pp.
Pohjola, M., Pirjola, L., Kukkonen, J., Kulmala, M. (2003) Modelling aerosol processes in a street environment. In: Sokhi, R.S. and Brechler, J. (eds.), Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Urban Air Quality - Measurement, Modelling and Management, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, 25-27 March 2003. University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, United Kingdom, pp. 298-301.
Rantamäki, M., Pohjola, M., Kukkonen J. and Karppinen, A. (2003) Evaluation of the HIRLAM model against meteorological data during an air pollution episode in southern Finland 27-29 December 1995. In: Sokhi, R.S. and Brechler, J. (eds.), Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Urban Air Quality - Measurement, Modelling and Management, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, 25-27 March 2003. University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, United Kingdom, 420-423.
Schatzmann, M., Grawe, D., Leitl, B., Muller, W.J. (2003) Data from an urban street monitoring station and its application in model validation. Proceedings, 26th ITM "Air pollution and its applications", Istanbul, May 2003.
Sokhi, R. S., L Luhana, J Kukkonen, E Berge, L H Slördal and S Finardi (2003) Analysis and Evaluation of PM10 Air Pollution Episodes in European Cities. In: Sokhi, R.S. and Brechler, J. (eds.), Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Urban Air Quality - Measurement, Modelling and Management, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, 25-27 March 2003. University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, United Kingdom, pp. 26-29.
Zilitinkevich, S., A. Baklanov, R. Bornstein, J. Hunt and P. Mestayer (2003) Modelling and Prediction of Urban Climate. Word Climate Change Conference, September 29 – October 3, 2003, Moscow, Russia
Zilitinkevich, S., Esau, I., Baklanov, A., Djolov, G. (2003) Scaling laws and turbulence closures for stable boundary layers. Presentation at EGS-AGU-EUG-2003, Nice, France.

FUMAPEX Reports:
Baklanov, A. (editor) (2003) FUMAPEX Integrated Systems for Forecasting Urban Meteorology, Air Pollution and Population Exposure – Project Kick-off Meeting and First Progress Report. DMI Sci. Report 03-12, ISSN 0905-3263. April 2003, 140p., URL: http://www.dmi.dk/f+u/publikation/vidrap/2003/Sr03-12.pdf
Baklanov, A. (editor) (2003) Improved Models for Computing the Roughness Parameters of Urban Areas. / Baklanov, A., P. Mestayer, M. Schatzmann, S. Zilitinkevich, A. Clappier, etc. D4.4 FUMAPEX Report, November 2003. DMI Sci. Report 03-19, ISBNnr.: 87-7478-495-1, 51 p.
Batchvarova, E., R. Sokhi, etc. (2003) ‘Comparison and analysis of currently employed meteorological approaches for modelling urban air pollutants’ and ‘Identification of gaps in met data required by UAP models for characterising urban BL’. FUMAPEX D2.3-2.4 Report, December 2003.
Fay, B. (2003) Overview of NPW / wind field models in FUMAPEX. D3.1 report for FUMAPEX, 29 p.
Fay, B. (2003a) Design of model comparison study. D3.2 report for FUMAPEX, 26 p.
Finardi, S. (editor) (2003) Definition of NWP models output products, UAP models input needs and gaps to be filled. FUMAPEX report for M5.1, Arianet, Italy.
Hänninen, O. and Jantunen, M. (2003) Refined and validated population exposure models. FUMAPEX report for D7.1, KTL, 25 p.
Millan, M. (editor) (2003) Ozone dynamics in the Mediterranean basin. Air pollution research report 78. EC DG RTD – CEAM. 287 p
Slördal, L.H. (editor) (2003) FUMAPEX: Guidelines of output from UAQIFSs as specified by end-users. FUMAPEX D8.1 report. NILU Report OR 2/2004, Ref: U-102144.
Sokhi, R.S., N. Kitwiroon and L. Luhana (2003) ‘FUMAPEX Datasets of Urban Air Pollution Models and Meteorological Pre-processors’. D2.1-2.2 report for FUMAPEX, 41 p.
Valkama, I., J. Kukkonen (2003) Identification and classification of air pollution episodes in terms of pollutants, concentration levels and meteorological conditions. FUMAPEX Deliverable D1.2, Oct. 2003.

Submitted papers:
Baklanov, A., A. Gross, J.H. Sørensen (2003) Modelling and forecasting of regional and urban air quality and microclimate. J. Computational Technologies (submitted).
Baklanov, A., A. Kuchin (2003) The mixing height in urban areas: comparative study for Copenhagen. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (submitted).
Baklanov, A., J.H. Sørensen, S.C. Hoe, B. Amstrup, (2003) Urban meteorological modelling for nuclear emergency preparedness. Submitted to Journ. Envir. Radioactivity.
Berthier, E., S. Dupont, H. Andrieu, PG. Mestayer. (2003) Comparison of two evapotranspiration schemes on a sub-urban site. Submitted to Journal of Hydrology, July 2003
Calori G., Clemente M., De Maria R., Finardi S., Lollobrigida F. and Tinarelli G. (2003) Air quality integrated modelling in Turin urban area. Submitted to Environmental Modelling and Software.
Dupont, S. E. Guilloteau, P.G. Mestayer, E. Berthier and H. Andrieu (2003) Parameterisation of the Urban Water Budget by Using SM2-U model. Submitted to Applied Meteorology, August 2003
Dupont, S., I. Calmet, P.G. Mestayer and S. Leroyer (2003) Parameterisation of the Urban Energy Budget with the SM2-U Model for the Urban Boundary-Layer Simulation. Submitted to Boundary Layer Meteorology, September 2003
Hänninen, O.O., Jantunen, M.J. (2003) Simulating personal PM2.5 exposure distributions in Helsinki using ambient measurements as inputs. Submitted to a Journal.
Kukkonen, J. M., Pohjola, R. S., Sokhi, L., Luhana, N., Kitwiroon, M., Rantamäki, E., Berge, V., Odegaard, L. H., Slørdal, B., Denby and S. Finardi (2003) Analysis and evaluation of local-scale PM10 air pollution episodes in four European cities, Oslo, Helsinki, London and Milan. Submitted for publication to Atmospheric Environment, September 2003.
Mestayer, P.G., J.-P. Costes and J.-F. Sini (2002) Inhomogeneous roughness influence on neutral atmospheric boundary layer simulation. Part I, steps, strips, and spots. Submitted to Boundary-Layer Meteorology, November 2002
Mestayer, P.G., P. Durand, P. Augustin, S. Bastin, J.-M. Bonnefond, B. Bénech, B. Campistron, A. Coppalle, H. Delbarre, B. Dousset, P. Drobinski, A. Druilhet, E. Fréjafon, S. Grimmond, D. Groleau, M. Irvine, C. Kergomard, S. Kermadi, J.-P. Lagouarde, A. Lemonsu, F. Lohou, N. Long, V. Masson, C. Moppert, J. Noilhan, B. Offerle, T. Oke, G. Pigeon, V. Puygrenier, S. Roberts, J.-M. Rosant, F. Saïd, J. Salmond, M. Talbaut, J. Voogt (2003) The Urban Boundary Layer Field Experiment over Marseille UBL/CLU-Escompte , Experimental Set-up and First Results. Submitted to Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Mai 2003.
Mestayer, P.G., S. Dupont and J.-F. Sini (2002) Inhomogeneous Roughness Influence on Neutral Atmospheric Boundary Layer Simulation. Part II, Regular Checkerboard'. Submitted to Boundary-Layer Meteorology, November 2002
Pohjola, M.A., J. Kukkonen, M. Rantamäki and A. Karppinen (2003) The evaluation of a severe air pollution episode in Helsinki on 27 - 29 December, 1995. Boreal Environment Research, submitted in April 2003, accepted in August 2003.
Rantamäki, M., Pohjola, M., Kukkonen J., Bremer, P., Karppinen A. (2003) Evaluation of two versions of the HIRLAM model against meteorological data during an air pollution episode in Southern Finland, 27-29 December 1995. Submitted for publication to Atmos. Environ., September 2003.

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